diff --git a/libavcodec/mpegvideo.h b/libavcodec/mpegvideo.h
index 0fb7d67dbc..39f23222d3 100644
--- a/libavcodec/mpegvideo.h
+++ b/libavcodec/mpegvideo.h
@@ -469,6 +469,7 @@ typedef struct MpegEncContext {
     /* bit rate control */
     int64_t total_bits;
     int frame_bits;                ///< bits used for the current frame
+    int stuffing_bits;             ///< bits used for stuffing
     int next_lambda;               ///< next lambda used for retrying to encode a frame
     RateControlContext rc_context; ///< contains stuff only accessed in ratecontrol.c
 
diff --git a/libavcodec/mpegvideo_enc.c b/libavcodec/mpegvideo_enc.c
index d8290a7dfc..ab6115b6f0 100644
--- a/libavcodec/mpegvideo_enc.c
+++ b/libavcodec/mpegvideo_enc.c
@@ -1579,6 +1579,7 @@ vbv_retry:
         s->frame_bits  = put_bits_count(&s->pb);
 
         stuffing_count = ff_vbv_update(s, s->frame_bits);
+        s->stuffing_bits = 8*stuffing_count;
         if (stuffing_count) {
             if (s->pb.buf_end - s->pb.buf - (put_bits_count(&s->pb) >> 3) <
                     stuffing_count + 50) {
diff --git a/libavcodec/ratecontrol.c b/libavcodec/ratecontrol.c
index a693ec4ca0..7b8e6493f0 100644
--- a/libavcodec/ratecontrol.c
+++ b/libavcodec/ratecontrol.c
@@ -679,7 +679,8 @@ float ff_rate_estimate_qscale(MpegEncContext *s, int dry_run)
         /* update predictors */
     if(picture_number>2 && !dry_run){
         const int last_var= s->last_pict_type == AV_PICTURE_TYPE_I ? rcc->last_mb_var_sum : rcc->last_mc_mb_var_sum;
-        update_predictor(&rcc->pred[s->last_pict_type], rcc->last_qscale, sqrt(last_var), s->frame_bits);
+        av_assert1(s->frame_bits >= s->stuffing_bits);
+        update_predictor(&rcc->pred[s->last_pict_type], rcc->last_qscale, sqrt(last_var), s->frame_bits - s->stuffing_bits);
     }
 
     if(s->flags&CODEC_FLAG_PASS2){